Melissa causes billion-dollar damage

In a statement to Parliament on Tuesday, Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness told Parliament that a preliminary estimate of Hurricane Melissa's impact, based on benchmarks of comparable regional disasters to physical infrastructure, is estimated at between US$6 billion (approximately J$963 billion) and US$7 billion (approximately J$1.1 trillion).

This is equivalent to 28 per cent to 32 per cent of the GDP for fiscal year 2024-2025. Holness said a preliminary estimate suggests that short-term economic output could decline by eight to 13 per cent.

"It is a major hit to our economy," Holness declared, saying the country had never experienced a disaster of this magnitude with this economic footprint in terms of the impact. Noting that the initial estimate is conservative, Holness said that in another few weeks, the country would be provided with a more precise estimate of the damage.

The administration is anticipating a temporary slowdown in economic activity, particularly in the most affected parishes, with agricultural output declining sharply in the short term as farmers begin replanting and livestock operations recover. Holness said while the tourism sector is resilient and working swiftly to recover, it will require targeted support to restore capacity and confidence. He said small and medium enterprises, especially those in retail, manufacturing services and the creative industries, have sustained significant losses and will require liquidity and recovery support to rebuild inventories, repair their facilities, and restart operations.

The estimated damage to the housing sector now means that the Government will have to plan and reprioritise future budgets because reconstruction will have to take place over several budget cycles. Meanwhile, the National Spatial Data Management Branch, supported by international technology partners, analysed more than 428,000 buildings across Jamaica. Satellite data and drone verification indicate that approximately 116,000 structures sustained severe or catastrophic damage. This is concentrated in Westmoreland, St Elizabeth, and Manchester.

Holness said thousands of households now face the loss of homes, crops, and small enterprises, leaving the country with not only a humanitarian crisis, but a shock to livelihoods, incomes, and local economies.